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Predicting the impact of a clinical article

A recent article published in the BMJ {1} highlights the importance of being able to predict the relevance and impact of a clinical or evidence-based medicine article shortly after its publication. The study asserts that a definitive method is needed to quickly determine an article's importance other than citation rates, as these are not available until months after publication.

The paper continues by stating that knowing the clinical impact of an article early on will allow it to be highlighted and distributed appropriately to the correct readership. This in turn could improve patient care through effective knowledge translation and continuing medical education, as well as allowing research within that area to advance. The article also proposes an interesting method to predict what the citation rate (and thus popularity) of a paper will be two years down the line.

Here at F1000 Medicine, we are avid believers in the necessity of identifying high impact articles as soon as possible. That's why we have over 2,400 experts worldwide who regularly send us evaluations of new (as well as older) articles that they deem add knowledge to an area of medicine. Thus, we are creating an invaluable online database for clinicians, physicians, researchers, nurses and medical students.

References:
1.    Lokker et al. Prediction of citation counts for clinical articles at two years using data available within three weeks of publication: retrospective cohort study. BMJ February 2008, Epub ahead of print [PMID:18292132].

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Posted by Sean Porazinski on Thursday Feb 28, 2008, Category: Impact factor versus... | Permalink